Tuesday, March 5, 2013

US oil production increase a mere blip

You wouldn't know it from the myriad of "news" articles about the production increases in oil that it is nothing more than false hope. The oil industry just will not be happy unless their oil is consumed as fast and in as large amounts as possible.  I guess they have a plan 'B.'

And the latest and greatest hope for continued consumption of non-renewable oil is that fracking will make the US the new Saudi Arabia. Consider, however, that oil production peaked in 1970 and declined until 1985 when an Alaskan ramp up caused a momentary peak. It declined from that peak until 2010 when oil production began to rise, apparently because of fracking. [See the chart in US oil production: Don't believe the hype.] 

But alas while oil production is on the rise, it is not expected to rise above the 1985 level which as noted is below the 1970 peak. See too the Economist's  Focus: Peak oil. What seems important is that the rise is coming from squeezing the last drop.  

However, this  squeezing is estimated to be about 6.5 years worth of American consumption.  

A relief maybe, but it is more like a false expectation that will leave us unprepared for the rainy day.

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